I know its advent and Christmas is close so I will get the serious stuff out of the way first and then give you something to look forward to in the New Year.
The latest British Chambers of Commerce’s (BCC) quarterly economic forecast, which is ranked joint second most accurate by the Sunday Times, predicts the UK will remain in the doldrums for some time.
The BCC has marginally upgraded its 2023 and 2024 GDP forecast but lowered the outlook for 2025, as economic growth for all three years flatlines.
Key points in the forecast are:
- 2023 GDP forecast upgraded to 0.6% from 0.4% in previous forecast.
- GDP growth in 2024 upgraded and 2025 downgraded from 0.3% and 0.7% to 0.4% and 0.6% respectively.
- Interest rates have now peaked at 5.25% but will ease only slightly in 2024 to 5%, before dropping to 4.25% by the end of 2025 – still well above the average for the past 10 years.
- The inflation rate has slowed to 4.6% in Q4 2023, but will remain above the 2% target in 2024, at 3.1%, before dropping to 1.9% in Q4 2025.
- Imports, exports, and general government spending all declined in 2023. In real terms Government spending and business investment will contract in 2024, both by -0.8%.
- Imports and exports are both expected to grow slowly in 2024 (0.3% and 0.5% respectively) and 2025 (1.1% and 1.2% respectively). This is weak by historical standards and less than the global average.
With interest rates now predicted to fall only slightly in 2024 and business confidence failing to take off, the BCC expects the economy to grow by just 0.4% in 2024 and 0.6% in 2025.
Weak levels of growth in household consumption and a forecast of a reduction in overall real terms Government spending in 2023 and 2024, are also factors in this shaky performance.
Although disposable incomes are now above pre-pandemic levels, households are spending less than they did then, suggesting high interest rates, inflation and global headwinds are weighing on consumer confidence.
The UK economy has yet to find a way to break out of its current rut and while it’s welcome that GDP should continue to expand there is an underlying fragility that is eroding confidence.
The Government set out several pro-growth measures in the Autumn Statement, but businesses and consumers have had their fingers badly burned by the pandemic and ensuing economic shocks.
It will take a huge effort to encourage investment and consumer spending, against that background, and inject some much-needed vitality.
The minimum wage increase early next year will further impact investment concerns among businesses, as cost pressures rise.
As we head towards an election next year, politicians will have to show how they will work with the business community to build on the Autumn Statement commitments and develop a much-needed long term economic plan to give companies confidence to invest in people, trade and grow.
House of Commons visit
Ok enough of the depressing stuff! This week we took a group of our patrons and members to the Houses of Parliament. The visit was hosted by Jack Brereton, MP for Stoke South who was one of seven Staffordshire MPs we met during our visit. We also met with Lee Rowley, Minister of State for Housing and James Sunderland MP.
We had the opportunity to discuss a range of topics including the economy, infrastructure, transport, skills, energy and net zero.
Connecting members to key decision makers is a crucial to our role as the voice of business and I am proud of the fact that that our members have regular access to all our MPs through visits like this and our regular ‘Meet the MP’ events. Keep an eye on our events page for these events in the new year.
Members’ Potters Club corporate membership
And finally let me tell you about a great exclusive corporate membership deal at the Potters Club for Chamber members.
The Potters’ Club is a local treasure. With sumptuous surroundings and the unique ambiance of the restaurant and Members’ Lounge you could be forgiven for thinking you were in a member’s club in the West End of London.
The British Pottery Manufacturers Federation Club, or Potters’ Club as it is more fondly known is situated on the third floor of the imposing Federation House on Station Road in Stoke. It was founded in 1951 to provide facilities for directors of the thriving local pottery companies to entertain overseas visitors. Over time the Club has extended its membership to professional people from all walks of business.
The new deal we have put together with the Club affords access to all its facilities including dining, use of the Members’ Lounge and of the facilities to host events, conferences, family occasions or just a space to take time out to relax.
With this exciting alliance, Chambers’ members will receive a complimentary Potters’ Club membership. Up to 10 employees of participating company will have access to the club’s facilities and exceptional dining experiences.
To find out the full details of the Potters Club deal contact our membership team membership@staffordshirechambers.co.uk or call 01782 202222.
If you want to talk to us about any business issues, including funding, you can call our switchboard on 01782 202222, call the Business Helpline on 0300 111 8002 or email: info@staffordshirechambers.co.uk
